Headwinds Ahead
PUSH Business: Why U.S. Travel is Set to Slow into Q1 2026, and What It Means for Sports Tourism
The Outlook
After years of post-pandemic rebuilding, the U.S. travel market is hitting a rough patch. Both domestic and international visitation are expected to cool through the first quarter of 2026, marking the first notable slowdown since 2021.
Forecasts from the U.S. Travel Association indicate a modest decline in inbound international visits in 2025, followed by a rebound later in 2026. The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) reports billions in reduced foreign-visitor spending, while airline projections from IATA signal softer demand for long-haul leisure travel.
For most sectors, this is a concerning trend. For the sports tourism industry, it’s a direct hit to the business model. Meaning fewer travelers in the stands, fewer hotel nights around events, and thinner sponsor activations.
Reading the Data
The slowdown isn’t catastrophic, but it is structural, the natural result of economic and policy headwinds colliding at once. For inbound arrivals, international visits are projected to drop several percentage points below 2024 levels before stabilizing mid-2026. According to WTTC data, visitor spending is expected to experience a multi-billion-dollar pullback in 2025. The IATA predicts air travel to experience decelerating growth on long-haul routes, a warning sign for transatlantic sports fans and international athletes traveling abroad. New visa fees and extended processing times are compounding costs and uncertainty, continuing policy friction.
At the same time, global economic forecasts from the IMF and the World Bank indicate slower growth across major source markets in Europe, Asia, and Latin America. When budgets are tight, discretionary travel is often the first to go.
Why Sports Tourism Feels It First
Sports tourism sits at the intersection of travel and emotion; it relies on movement, loyalty, and experience. When mobility drops, it’s felt across every layer of the ecosystem.
Many sports and events depend on international entrants. Even a slight decline in foreign athletes has a disproportionately large impact on ticketing, entry fees, and merchandising.
International visitors spend significantly more per trip than domestic travelers. Fewer inbound participants mean less hotel occupancy, lower ADR, and smaller restaurant and retail receipts for host communities.
Sponsors evaluate reach and engagement. With fewer global travelers and corporate guests on the ground, premium hospitality packages lose appeal, and activation budgets shift toward digital.
The anticipated 2025 trough, followed by a 2026 rebound, will cluster demand around major events. That surge could drive up prices for big-ticket hosts while leaving smaller events with thinner attendance and fewer partners.
What’s Driving the Downturn
1. The strong dollar.
A stronger U.S. currency makes every American trip more expensive. For travelers from Europe or Asia, a 10–15% currency fluctuation can significantly impact trip decisions.
2. Visa friction.
The new visa integrity fee, along with longer processing times, adds cost and complexity for travelers from emerging markets, where growth in sports tourism has been strongest.
3. Softening global economies.
IMF and World Bank forecasts predict lower growth through early 2026. That means fewer outbound leisure trips and reduced corporate travel budgets.
4. Airline route economics.
Airlines have trimmed less-profitable long-haul routes, especially to second-tier U.S. markets. That makes access to mid-size destinations harder and more expensive.
5. Perception and politics.
Travel sentiment is influenced by policy tone and media coverage. Confusing visa policies or safety headlines can suppress intent faster than actual restrictions do.
Scenarios Through Early 2026
Base Case: A steady but contained slowdown through Q1 2026, with stabilization by mid-year as global travel confidence returns.
Downside: Visa backlogs and global uncertainty are expected to prolong the weakness into late 2026, with mid-tier markets being hit hardest.
Upside: If visa reforms or marketing pushes take hold, pent-up demand could fuel a sharp, but narrow, rebound around major events.
In any case, sports tourism professionals should expect a leaner six- to nine-month stretch ahead.
Re-Running the Numbers
Event and destination models should be recalibrated for realism for the following reasons: international attendees are expected to be down 10–20% through early 2026, visitor spending is estimated to be down 5–15%, and we should see a 10–25% decline in hospitality and sponsorship sales.
For destinations, that can mean lower tourist development tax collections and softer retail impact. These numbers are not crisis-level, but enough to influence future bid strategies and marketing budgets.
Navigating the Slowdown
1. Focus on domestic and near-in markets. Reallocate marketing toward regional drive markets and national athlete communities. The domestic traveler remains the most reliable segment in uncertain years.
2. Build flexibility into pricing. Encourage early commitments with low-risk deposits, rollover options, or event-insurance programs. The perception of flexibility can be as powerful as a discount.
3. Redefine sponsorship value. Shift from counting foreign spectators to measuring engagement. Offer sponsors measurable digital activations, livestream visibility, and domestic hospitality experiences.
4. Partner smarter with hotels and airlines. Convert traditional room blocks into performance-based agreements. Explore co-marketing campaigns that promote destinations during the lull.
5. Collaborate and advocate. Sports commissions, CVBs, and event directors should present a unified voice on visa efficiency and inbound marketing support. Collective advocacy accelerates recovery.
6. Adjust the calendar. Look for strategic placement in shoulder seasons or regional travel peaks. Reducing overlap with global mega-events can protect visibility and reduce costs.
7. Operate lean but modernize. Use downtime to upgrade CRM systems, ticketing tech, and customer data tools. Better analytics today mean more innovative marketing when demand rebounds.
Opportunity During Slowdown
Turbulence breeds innovation. Destinations and event directors willing to adapt can gain a long-term advantage.
Market share wins. Domestic-focused events that double down on local athlete engagement can capture share from slower-moving competitors.
Innovation in delivery. Hybrid participation models (remote racing, live tracking, virtual fan zones) create scalable revenue independent of travel volume.
Negotiation leverage. Hotels and DMOs will be hungry to maintain business; this is the time to secure multi-year contracts or discounted venue rates.
What Destinations and States Can Do
Keep the infrastructure ready. Maintain funding for visa and customs staffing; avoid compounding friction through under-resourced entry points.
Fuel domestic demand. Leverage “Stay and Play” campaigns highlighting home-state tournaments, festivals, and sports experiences that keep visitor dollars circulating locally.
Negotiate smarter event deals. Utilize the quieter season to align with events that offer community engagement and sustainability commitments, rather than focusing solely on visitor volume.
Prepare for the rebound. When travel confidence returns — and it will — destinations with streamlined logistics and ready venues will capture the surge first.
The Short Runway and the Long Game
The travel slowdown ahead is real, but it’s not permanent. Both domestic and international visitation are expected to decline into early 2026, led by currency strength, administrative barriers, and soft global growth. Yet the fundamentals of sports tourism (community, storytelling, and shared experience) remain strong.
For event directors, this is a time for precision, not panic. Forecast again, adapt, and stay visible. For destinations, it’s time to invest in relationships, not retreat. The organizations that keep moving, even when the headwinds pick up, will be the first to accelerate when skies clear. Stay in motion.
Sources & References
U.S. Travel Association – 2025 Travel Forecast and Outlook
World Travel & Tourism Council / Reuters – International Spending Decline Report
IATA Global Air Transport Outlook (2025)
Reuters – New Visa Fee and Policy Impacts
IMF / World Bank – Global Economic Forecasts 2025–2026